Exports drop for ninth month !!!

 

 

Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha and his economy czar
Deputy Prime Minister Somkid Jatusripitak spoke with
 foreign and Thai chief executives Monday, including AAT
 president and chief executive Trevor Negus (at microphone).
 Mr Negus urged urgent work on infrastructure, particularly
 roads, which he said are "in a state of congestion and decay."
 (Photo courtesy of Government House)


Thailand's troubled economy continues to struggle, with
exports falling for the ninth straight month in September as
 imports also plummeted.

The Commerce Ministry yesterday reported shipments fell

 by 5.51% year-on-year last month to a value of UScopy8.8

 billion, easing slightly from August's sharp 6.69% fall, the

second worst this year after a 7.87% decline in June, which

 itself was the biggest drop since an 8.15% decline in

 December 2011.

 For the first nine months of this year, exports dropped by
 4.98% to copy62 billion.
September imports plunged 26.2% year-on-year to a value
of $21.7 billion, resulting in a nine-month fall to $154
billion, down 10.5%.

• First meeting ever: Prayut listens to chief executives

Agricultural and agribusiness products contracted by 9.9%

 year-on-year last month to $2.65 billion.

Industrial goods dropped by 1.9% to copy5.1 billion despite

shipments of automotive and parts rising by 20.6%, driven by

 a 144% surge in passenger car exports.

Somkiat Triratpan, director of the Office of Trade Policy

 and Strategy, attributed the fall in exports to the weak global

 economy and soft demand in major trade partners, particularly

Japan (down by 20.6%), France (down 18.1%), China

 (down 17.9%), South Korea (down 15.9%), Britain (down 10.1%)

 and the US (down 3.6%).

Overall crude oil prices also remained low, declining by 47.5%

year-on-year in the first nine months, while global farm prices

 also dropped sharply, especially for rice, rubber and sugar.

 Export prices of rice dropped by 9.5%, with rubber down 19.8%

 and sugar 8.2%.

Mr Somkiat insisted Thailand's export contraction was low

compared with the performance of other countries such as

 Australia (-21.8%), France (-14.3%), Singapore (-14%),

 Japan (-9.2%), South Korea (-6.4%) and the US (-6.1%).

The Commerce Ministry is still maintaining forecast for exports

 to contract by 3% this year.

"Export contraction is likely to stay within a range of 3.5% to

4% if we come up with export values of copy9 billion baht a

 month for the final three months of the year," Mr Somkiat said.

 "The contraction will widen to 5% if we achieve only copy8

billion a month."

Wallop Vitanakorn, vice-president of Thai National Shippers'

Council, said last month's lower contraction in exports was due

 primarily to a surge in automotive shipments.

 With the global economy remaining far from a recovery and

 Thailand's. economy still weak, the country's exports are

 likely to fall by at least 5% this year, he said.

 Santitarn Sathirathai, the Singapore-based head of economic

 research for Southeast Asia and India at Credit Suisse, said

Thailand's growth would remain lacklustre albeit more

resilient than expected, as tourism numbers may provide

some upside risk to its 2015 GDP forecast of 2% growth.

Thailand's strong current account position means the baht

 will probably outperform its peers unless the Bank of

 Thailand takes more policy actions including cutting rates,

 he said.

 "We continue to see room for another rate cut, but the timing

 remains uncertain. It seems to us the Bank of Thailand may

 wish to see how domestic demand will respond to various

stimuli introduced by the government before adding another

 rate cut," Mr Santitarn said.

 "We still think headwinds to exports will be sufficient to cap

 overall GDP growth in the fourth quarter, which would

prompt the central bank to cut the rate by another 25 basis

 points by year-end.

 "However, a December move looks more likely than the

 upcoming meeting on Nov 4." Sarun Sunansathaporn, an

 economist in Bank of Ayudhya's research department,

 said September's export contraction of 5.5% was better than

the projected 8.3%.

 "Exports in baht terms were positive, as they improved to

 growth of 5.5% on the back of the baht's depreciation,"

 he said.

 However, Mr Sarun said last month's 26.2% import decline

 was a big surprise.

 "This was even worse than economists' bearish forecast of

 a contraction of between 13% and 23.9%," he said.

 Thailand's trade account surplus widened to $2.8 billion,

$2.8 billion, marking a five-month streak of surpluses,

 Mr Sarun said, adding that prospects for domestic demand

and exports remained tepid.

Business,Business News, Bangkok Post, 27October 2015.

 

Export drop and import decline are relate problem it

seem effect by external and internal factor.

For  external factor such as competitive in the world market

it depend on the cost and the price set that should be reasonable

for competitiveness so source and use of fund should be

 examine and implement to the optimal point for each business.

 

For internal factor such as infrastructure and wage rate must

provide and control to the point that can stimulate economic

growth.

 

Believe that authorities involve can solve the problem and

do duty to stimulate export volume and GDP growth well.

 

Sincerely Yours.