to a processing plant in Khon Kaen province. Thailand may
produce less sugar than previously forecast as a drought
parches crops, potentially reducing exports.
(Photo by Patipat Janthong)
Thailand
may produce less sugar than previously forecast as
a drought parches crops,
potentially reducing exports from
the world’s largest shipper after Brazil.
Production is estimated at about 10 million tonnes in the season
that began in November from a cane harvest of 100 million
tonnes, said Somsak Jantararoungtong, secretary general
at the nation's Office of the Cane and Sugar Board.
That would be 14% less than an earlier estimate of 11.6 million
tonnes, he said.
Sugar prices in New York have rebounded 43% since reaching
a seven-year low in August after El Nino cut the sucrose content
in sugar cane grown in Brazil as well as yields in Thailand
and India.
Lower supplies from the top producers may widen a global
shortage that's forecast at 5.3 million tonnes in 2015-16 by
Platts Kingsman, a unit of McGraw Hill Financial Inc.
"The drought since last year parched crops, limiting cane growth,
and rains, which took place when the cane usually accumulates
sucrose, reduced sweet content," Mr Somsak said in an
interview in Bangkok on Thursday.
"Dryness affected all regions, especially the central and western
provinces which have lower water supply."
Annual gain
Sugar for March delivery rose 1.9% to 14.45 cents a pound on
ICE Futures US in New York on Thursday. Futures advanced
5% last year, the first annual gain in five years.
Global output will fall 4.3% to 178.9 million tonnes in the
2015-16 season, which runs from October to September in
most countries, trailing demand by as much as 8.2 million
tonnes, according to trader Czarnikow Group Ltd.
A shortfall is expected for the season after that, according to
Kingsman and the London- based International Sugar
Organization. The last time the sugar market had two straight
deficits was in 2010.
Thai production may total 10.85 million tonnes this season,
according to Tom McNeill, director of Brisbane, Australia-based
Green Pool Commodity Specialists. Current sugar prices already
reflect the lower Thai crop estimates, he said.
Output declined 8% to 3.4 million tonnes as of Jan 19 from
the same period a year earlier, board data show.
The Southeast Asian nation produced a record 11.3 million
tonnes of sugar from cane crushing of 106 million tonnes
in the 2014-15 season.
Boosting planting
Thailand's sugar production may jump about 5 million tonnes
in the next five years as millers expand capacity and the
government encourages farmers to switch to cane from rice,
Mr Somsak said. The board may approve 12 new plants in
the next few years, adding to the already existing 52 factories,
and increased output will be mainly sold in Asia and also used
for ethanol and biochemical production, he said.
Cane output is set to climb to 180 million tonnes by 2026,
yielding around 20 million tonnes of sugar while the area under
the crop will expand to 16 million rai from 10 million rai now,
the board estimates.
"Farmers favor planting cane as it can withstand drought and
survive floods, unlike rice or cassava," Mr Somsak said.
It also gives farmers better income compared with other
crops, he said.
Business,Business news,Bangkok Post,22 January 2016.
The output of
sugar drop and the price have rebounded
is the good news for the sugarcane.
For the long run plan we should observe the world
output,
price and consumption continuosly for planning our
production
so that we will not face the problem of over supply and
low
price like other agricultural product.
Sincerely Yours.
ไม่มีความคิดเห็น:
แสดงความคิดเห็น