BOT forecast GDP growth lower than 3 %!!

 

Thailand’s central bank has again cut the country’s

economic growth and export projections based on the

domestic market’s fragile recovery and chronic

 depression in the global economy.

A slow economic recovery in Chaina and other Asian

economics,ashift in global trade affecting Thai exports,

and lower than expected public expenditures are key

downside risks,noted the central bank’s Monetary

Policy Report published in June.

The central bank previously trimmed it GDP forecast

to 3% from 3.8 in June,predicting shipments would

shrink by 1.5%.

Mrs Roong Malikamas ,a senior director of macroeconomic

and monetary policy department said,the central bank’s GDP

forcast might be slightly lower than 3 %.Its new forecast

will be announced September 25 ,when the next report

is publish.

 

Greater downside risks to growth in the second half

were indicated by the central bank’s downward fan

chart,with growth recovery prospected to gradually

increase.

China’s slowdown has affected Thai shipments and the

central bank expects the recovery momentum will

continue to dent export growth.

 

The export forecast would be in similar fashion as the

Fiscal Policy office’s projection of a 4 % contraction,

said Mrs Roong.

The Commerce Ministry announced on Monday exports

tumble 7.87 % year-on-year in June ,resulting in 4.87%
c

ontraction in the first half this year.

You can read more in “ Exports drop down by 7.87%in June”

 

Export value in US dollar and baht terms declined by

5.5% and 3.1% in second quarter,respectively.

A continuous decline in nominal farm income on the

back of falling price of agricultural produce has affected

rural consumption ,noting how ebbing rubber prices have

a toll on private consumption in Southern provinces,

said Mrs Roong.

 

The private Consumption Indicator fell by 0.8%

year-on-year from April to June ,down from 0.7%growth

in the first quarter.The manufacturing production index

declined by 7.6% year-on –year in the second quarter,

down from 0.1% growth in the preceding quarter.

 

Economic activity in the second quarter was slow

because of softer private spending sluggish manufacturing

exports,and lower private investment and manufacturing

output.

Economic growth on a quarterly basis in the second quarter

is expected to remain positive,The National Economic and

Social Development Board will announce Thailand ‘s GDP

growth in the second quarter on August 17.

Although the impact of a weaker baht on import value

is a concern ,business operators still believe imports will

continue as long as domestic demand exists,according to

a central bank survey.

 

In my viewpoint,although the forecast GDP growth is lower

than 3%,I believe that it will not slide down very much

and the economic growth is expected to remain positive.

The GDP growth will reach at what point in the end of

the of the year depend on cooperation between BOT

and Fiscal Ministry to manage the fiscal and monetary

policy to serve the investment and business growth.

The Commerce Ministry policy and strategy to promote

export and import is also important to the growth of

GDP too.

Government information for inbound and outbound

investors to be confident in our infrastructure,

lower  labour cost maintain and taxes policy to

stimulate investment is to provide to the investors more

 so that they can make decision to invest more in our country.

The good political climate is to be provided to make the

country more attractive to investors.

 

Sincerely Yours.