วันเสาร์ที่ 11 เมษายน พ.ศ. 2558

Will Thailand a new sick man of Asia!?


 
Gold economic period of Thailand is before 1997,growth rate

is 8-13 per cent follow on huge government investment in

Laem Chabang Industry Estate,natural gas extraction and

 industrial investment in the East including foreign investment

to set the production base.

Investment in immovable property and golf course are in

every where until the bubble economy came, there are

large amount of current account deficit and many foreign

loans borrowed,and high risk in financial sector.

 

In 1997 ,the bubble economy explosed ,devalued of the

baht currency is necessary,the baht value lost over half.

commercial bank and business sector failed asset  gone,

followed by large amount of debts adding.

At that time the economic was in recession period but the

weaken of the baht value stimulate competitiveness in the

world market  and change Thailand from consume inbound

to the exporting country.

 

Over decade past ,exporting become major important in

Thai economic,which the goods export are agricultural

product, labour  industry such as garment,electrical,

electronic ,computer and automotive industry.

 

In 2008 ,we have the impact from world crisis also,the export

market clam down however the economic can recover rapidly.

In 2010 we met the political crisis and the severe flooding in 2011.

In 2012 the economic had major recovery,the government use

many populist policies including rice pledging scheme lead

to using future money. The economic met the highest

point in the beginning of 2013and begin slow down,

household debt increase and became major problem

in economic growth.

 

We met political crisis again and the coup in May 22,2014.

The Prayut government try to reform Thaialnd and stimulate

the economic in every sector but we still in slow growth

economic anyway and also in the Medium income country

trap.You can read more in “Thailand and Medium income

Country trap”.


Meanwhile after the crisis in world economic 2008 untill now

the world economic still fragile.You can read more in “World

economic is  fragile : How about Thai economic!?”


The export value which is the major revenue of the country
 
decrease, however tourism from abord increase and
 
construction in infrastructure increase also although
 
it can not speed up the economic as it should be.

 

In my viewpoint,Thai economic does not in moribund situation,

We still have potencial to growth.If the political crisis can solve ,

we still more attractive for foreign investors.We should prepare

ourselves a good infrastructure to serve it including the least

boundary tax.

We should stimulate growth from internal business sector

 investment and the expenditure of the consumer also.

If we prepare and adapt ourselves to competitive in the world

market we will never be the new sick man of Asia.

 

Hope political crisis can solve and we have a sustainable

economic.

 

 

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