World economic is recovery but still in fragile
situation,
there are sign of risk to deflation which are not good
to
economic. Since critical world economic in 2008,
economic of major industry country such as
the United
States,Europe and Japan are in receesion,
but overall world economic is satifiable growth,because
of growth in BRICS group especially in China.
After critical economic in 2008,China’s economic growth
is good according to intention to stimulate economic.
In stimulation economic growth in BRICS group,
it cause to high debt too.
BRICS group,especially China try to slow to stimulate
economic lead to economic slow down in BRICS group.
Meanwhile in major industry country,only the United
State
has strongly economic recovery since last year so the
Federral Reserve stop stimulate economic by QE.And for
this this year
try to increase policy rate instead.
In overall recovery of world economic still fragile,
especially
in Europe meanwhile slow down in BRICS group including
China.
The analysts estimated that world economic will increase
3 per cent ,better than last year, but lower than
everage
Growth of 4 per
cent before the world economic crisis
in 2008.
Deflation is hard to solve because decreasing in price
will beinside the
projection.Household and business sectors
will slow down
the expenses ,expenditure and investment
stop abruptly
because consumer will wait for the lower price.
Thai economic is an
open economy,both in commerce
and investment.Economic indexes in January show that
Thai economic still slow down as the same as last year,
indicate that economic still not recovery.
In detail,consumer expenditure are stable, not in
acceleration
stage as the same
as private investment, meanwhile
government expenditure
can not speed up as it should be.
In January export expenditure decrease 2.4 per cent,
credit loan in commercial bank slow down to 4.3 per
cent.
Production in the country slow down,manufacturing
productivity index is in deficit 1.3 per cent meanwhile
productivity rate is at 60.9 , not better than the last
two
month.Positive value is in tourism,amount of tourist
is increase 15.9 per cent.
On the other side we can see the slow down of economic
momentum from :
1.Import value decrease 14.8 per cent depending on lower
oil price.
2.Inflation rate is down trend,the general inflation
rate is in
deficit 0.5 in
Fabruary and 0.4 deficit in January meanwhile
core inflation (excluding oil and food) decrease to 1.45
per cent in February compare with 1.69 per cent at the
end
of last year.
These number indicate that internal goods price are down
trend,
expenses spending are weak.Source of fund transfer,the
balance
of payments are little overbalance due to high amount
efflux of internation fund eventhough there are high
amount of current
account surplus.Efflux of international
fund due to the money bring out of business unit in the
country.
Since 2008,Thai economic growth is about 3.2 per cent,
that is low rate
excluding year 2010 and 2012 economic
growth is about 7 per cent according to economic
stimulation by
the government meanwhile growth
economic in the
other year without stimulation
is about 1.2 per cent which is too low compare
with provincial economic.That is the problem of
Thai economic.
Slow growth economic in Thailand follow upon.
1.Impact from continuous slow growth lead to slow
recovery.
2.Problem from structure of economic that make Thailand
in medium income trap.
3.People are not confident in stability of economic and
politics
so delay investment and consumption
Recover from slow economic growth depend on.
1.Administrative efficiency in government sector in
various
area such as
1.1
Rapidly in the budget disbursement which
will lead to
more investment and more consumption.
1.2
Improve and investment in infrastructure
will lead to
more investment and stimulate economic growth.
1.3
Solve the low agricultural price so the
farmers will
have more money to spend to the economic system.
1.4
Solve the high cost of living ,people will
have more
money to invest in other business area.
1.5
Provide efficiency in tax system collection to
get more
revenue to spend on government investment.
2. Solve political conflict to create social and
economic
stability,there will be more investment from foreign
investors to stimulate more economic growth.And will
make more confident for consumers to spend their money.
3.Provide confident in economic in abstract so that
people
will invest more and spend more.
4.Keep an eye on world economic,world maket and the
competitors so that we can rapidly change ourself to
competitivein the market ,can survive and can provide
more economic growth to the economic system.
With all above strategies I think we can get along well
with the period of economic slow down and can spead
more economic growth to Thai economy.
Hope everyone prepare ourselves well to get along with
the
economic situation.
Best Wish.
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